Jeff "Odie" Espenship

Watch Out - “I’ll Be Careful” Can Kill You!

When working in the field, Target Leaders know to watch out for the phrase, “I’ll Be Careful.”  Someone is about to do something Dumb, Dangerous, or Different!  It can kill you.

In February 1989 at Eielson AFB in Fairbanks, Alaska I was flying the venerable A-10 “Warthog” on a routine training mission.  It was a beautiful winter morning flying that day when I first uttered the words, “I’ll be Careful.”  It almost cost me my life.

Camera Footage of Iditarod Sled Dog race - February 1989

Why do smart, highly skilled, very competent people do DUMB things?  If we look within ourselves, we will find that we are not “dumb people”, but we will commit dumb, errant, or unsafe acts.  Why?  The simple answer is this.  The more we work our jobs the more successful, capable, and competent we become at performing each task.  Naturally, as our skill and experience rises, so does our confidence level.   As our confidence rises, we must remain vigilant to not allow ourselves or those around us to become overly confident or too self-assured when performing our duties.  When our confidence exceeds our ability, bad things happen.  Smart people do dumb things.

My dumb act began that fateful day as I was flying down the frozen Yukon River on a Low Altitude Tactical Navigation (LATN) training mission.  I was cruising along at 300 feet and 400 mph, approximately ½ mile in trail of my flight leader.  Suddenly, my radio crackles with his voice, “Odie! Sled dog team ahead.”

The 1989 Iditarod race was taking place.  Three time champion Susan Butcher was defending her title that year.  Millions of T-Shirts sold exclaiming, “Alaska – Where men are men and women win the Iditarod”

When my flight leader announced that a sled dog team was just ahead, I thought to myself, “I’ve got to get that sled dog team on film.”  I happened to be carrying an inert-practice B Model Maverick missile, the type that functions only while attached to the airplane and has no propellant or explosives.  Fighter pilots use them to practice switchology in locking up targets. After the mission, we review the gun camera film to measure a successful target lock. 

“It’s perfectly safe to film this sled dog team,” I thought.  My over-confidence and perceived skill to operate a piece of equipment in a very short amount of time while flying the jet overcame my sense of good judgment.  The problem with being over-confident is that you don’t know what you don’t know.  You have just enough ability and skill to get yourself into a situation that ultimately requires you to rely on lady luck to bail you out.  Not good!

As I locked the eyes of the missile squarely on the sled dog team and began filming, I thought to myself:    “I’ll be careful”

As an overly confident A-10 pilot, I am now staring at the TV monitor inside the cockpit completely oblivious to the surrounding mountains and trees approaching me at over 400 mph.

My internal alarm clock began ringing.  This internal safety timer is a device similar the hairs that stand up on the back of one’s neck after spending too much time heads down texting and driving.  The timer says,   “Hey dummy!  You might want to look up and see what’s in front of you.”

 Like a massive semi truck stopped dead in the road directly in front of me, a mountain ridgeline was directly ahead.  Seeing this can only be described as an underwear changing event.

“WHOA!” Max power! Pull back on the control stick!  Turn! Lady luck please don’t fail me now! If you have ever seen an A-10 perform at an air show, then you have seen the incredible flying capability of the airplane.  I managed to clear the ridgeline before I became “pink mist” among the wreckage.  My overly confident perception of my “I’ll Be Careful” ability put me into a situation that pure luck got me out of.   Lady luck saved me from becoming another headline in the newspaper:  “Fighter pilot killed today while on a routine training mission.”

Routine jobs become less safe when we allow ourselves to believe our skill, knowledge, and experience is better than what the plan, procedure, or job briefing calls for.   Neither the plan nor the briefing called for practicing Maverick missile lockups on a sled dog team.  My emotional snap decision triggered by a confidence that exceeded my ability almost killed me.

Target Leaders know that over confidence left unchecked will turn to arrogance.  Arrogant people fail to learn, listen, and grow.   In their mind they are eight feet tall and bullet proof.   They are never wrong.  They fight to be right, not for what is right.  Target Leaders understand that people will operate to the level that is tolerated.   My commanding officer quickly refocused my attitude and work behavior to operate at a much higher level - what is expected, not accepted.   “I’ll Be Careful” means someone is about to rationalize away proven methodologies and correct procedures in order to “blend” proper techniques with personal techniques.  How your team operates when no one is looking defines your work culture.

Remember, your work is just as dangerous and hazardous as flying a fighter jet.  However, as experienced, confident, and professional people, we know that our work is VERY safe because of the training, technology, planning, and layers of protection that is built into getting the job done.  There is not a rule, tool, technique, policy, or procedure invented or implemented that will protect you if you decide to commit an errant or unsafe act by saying, “I’ll be careful.” It can kill you!